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Chinese Archives of General Surgery(Electronic Edition) ›› 2023, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (05): 366-371. doi: 10.3877/cma.j.issn.1674-0793.2023.05.009

• Original Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Risk factors and prediction model of reintubation after liver transplantation

Kunhe Li, Mengjia Kou, Liting Kuang()   

  1. Department of Anesthesiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
  • Received:2023-02-01 Online:2023-10-01 Published:2023-10-19
  • Contact: Liting Kuang

Abstract:

Objective

To explore the risk factors of reintubation after liver transplantation, establish and validate prediction model, so as to provide reference for clinical practice.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted in 500 patients who underwent liver transplantation in the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2016 to December 2021. The selected patients were divided into reintubation group (Group R, 21 cases) and control group (Group C, 479 cases). The perioperative clinical data of the two groups were compared, and the risk factors and prognosis of reintubation after liver transplantation were analyzed.

Results

The incidence of reintubation in patients undergoing liver transplantation was 4.2% (21/500). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that high MELD score, elevated serum creatinine (Scr) 48 hours after operation, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) peak value after operation were independent risk factors for reintubation after operation. The ROC curve was drawn for the above risk factors, and the area under the curve was 0.790 (95% CI: 0.677-0.903, P<0.001). The Nomogram prediction model of reintubation after liver transplantation was made, and the preliminary prediction of reintubation after liver transplantation was realized according to the score.

Conclusion

For patients undergoing liver transplantation, high MELD score before operation, increased Scr at 48 hours after operation, and peak ALT after operation are independent risk factors for reintubation after operation.

Key words: Liver transplantation, Reintubation, Postoperative, Risk factors, Retrospective, Predictive model

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